Polish Middles in Sports Arbitrage Betting
What is Polish Middles?
Polish Middles are not very popular in sports arbitrage world. The reason for his is the higher risk of loss – it is closer to gambling instead of sure bets, but with the right strategy, you can win a lot in long terms. In the previous article where it is explained in details what is Middles, you know that you must place sure bets for a match to end with a specific result with low risk, but with higher profit. Well, Polish Middles is exactly the opposite – you must place sure bets for match NOT to end with a specific result with a little bit higher risk then Middles, but with higher profit. Below you can find explained examples and strategies for placing bets on Polish Middles.
Polish Middles calculator /example 1/
As you can see the calculator for Polish Middles is not different than the Middles calculator from /example 1/ in the article for Middles. There aren’t any sure bets with MAX value, but all the rest is the same. Lets explain:
Lech Poznan – Belenses
1) AH2 (+o.25) at 2.36 – 12Bet (“Belenses” to Win. In case of Draw – half bet will be void and half will win.)
2) 1 at 2.10 – Tempobet (“Lech Poznan” to Win)
If we bet 100 on 12Bet, we have to bet 112.38 on Tempobet to win 23.62.
– 1.1) If “Belenses” Win you will win 100×2.36 – (100+112.38) = 236.00 – 212.38 = 23.62
– 1.2) If the result is Draw you will win 50×2.36 – (50+112.38) = 118 – 162.38 = – 44.38 (It is 50 because you will get back half of your bet at AH2 +0.25 and only half will win)
– 2.1) If “Lech Poznan” Win you will win 112.38×2.10 – (100+112.38) = 236.00 – 212.38 = 23.62
Now if you still wonder why you should bother with Polish Middles instead of Surebets or Middles we will give you a hypothetical scenario that could help you to decide by yourself.
The value of the Polish Middles on the top left corner, explains what is the risk from placing bets on it. If you look at /example 1/ the value is 2.88, but lets say it is 3. This means that if you bet two times with 212.38 and win 2×23.62 = 47.24 and on the third time you bet 212.38 and lose 44.38 you will get back your money with a small profit of 47.24-44.38 = 2.86. So if you win two times and lose once on the third time you will still be on profit. The point is that as lower the value of the Polish Middles is, as lower the risk is. In /example 2/ you can see another example for Polish Middles, but with a lower value.
Polish Middles /example 2/
In /example 2/ the value of the Polish Middle is 1.92 but lets say it is 2. This means that if you lose and win one time, at the end you will win 3.64-3.36 = 0.28 profit. So in this case you don’t need to win twice and lose one like on /example 1/ to return your money. You only need to win and lose once, which in long terms is a better strategy. The profit of Polish Middles with lower value is also lower, but it is up to you which way you will choose.
Math behind calculating the value of Polish Middles:
Example 1 – (44.38/23.62)+1 = 2.88
Example 2 – (3.36/3.64)+1 = 1.92
To summarize we can say that Polish Middles could be a really profitable investment because there is a high percent of profit. It is closer to gambling because you still have to hold on chance things to happen or not to happen. It will be a benefit if you have skills in regular football betting to know what are the abilities of the teams and to know which Polish Middles condition is more probably to happen.
To see Polish Middles in action click here: PM PreMatch
Posted on: "02 September 2015", by "Iliyan Lishkov "
Last updated on: "16 March 2017"