Middles in Sports Arbitrage Betting
What is Middles?
Middles is one very interesting tool that could bring you a lot of money with less cost. It is not very popular in sports arbitrage world, but anyway many people prefer to take their chances with Middles instead of regular sure bets. What makes it so special and different? Placing bets on it is something between gambling and sure bets. Otherwise, it is like placing sure bets for a match to end with a specific result with low risk, but with higher profit. It sounds exciting for me and that's why will explain it in more details below for those of you who find it interesting too.
Middles calculator /example 1/
On first place lets explain the calculator. It is not very different than a regular sure bet calculator from this article: "Surebet calculator". There are only two differences:
- The first difference is in the upper left corner. As you can see there is a number and a percentage in the brackets. The number explains the value of the middle. The percentage shows the potential loss or win from the total stake if the result doesn't meet the conditions.
- The second difference is in three of the elements of the "Total" section:
- Return Lost/Win: Total amount of the money you will lose/ win as a return.
- Profit Lost/Win: The difference between “Return” and “Stake”. It is the total loss/profit of your bet.
- Arbitrage: Same as the upper left corner.
- The third difference is the Condition tab in the bottom left corner of the calculator. It shows the condition what must happen to win.
Now let's explain the calculations.
Manchester United - Liverpool
1) AH1 (+0.75) at 1.19 - Bet365 ("Manchester United" to Win or Draw. If "Manchester United" lose with one goal - half bet will be void)
2) 2 at 4.70 - Marathonbet ("Liverpool" to Win)
- 1.1) If "Manchester United" Win or is Draw you will win 100x1.19 - (100+25.31) = 119.00 - 125.31 = -6.31
- 2.1) If "Liverpool" Win with exactly one goal you will win 25.31x4.7 - (50+25.31) = 118.96 - 75.31 = 43.65 (It is 50 because you will get back half of your bet at AH1 +0.75)
- 3.0) If "Liverpool" Win with two or more goals you will win 25.31x4.7 - (100+25.31) = 118.96 - 125.31 = -6.35 (This time half bet won't be void because "Machester" lose with two or more goals)
So at the end, you will risk 6.31 to win 43.65.
If we look at it as a regular bet, it will be like betting 6.31€ on 6.92 odds for Liverpool to win for 43.95€ profit.
It sounds attractive to me - low risk, high profit. But there is still a risk, and not everyone is ready to take it.
The value of the Middles on the top left corner, explains what is the risk from placing bets on it. If you look at /example 1/ the value is 7.92, but let's say it is 7. This means that if you bet 6 times with 125.31 and lose 6x6.31 = 37.86 and on the seventh time you bet 125.31 and win 43.65 you will get back your money with a small profit of 43.65-37.86 = 5.79. So if you lose six times and win once on the seventh time you will still be on profit. The point is that as higher the value of the Middles is, as lower the risk is. That's why we offer MAX middles as well /example 2/, where there isn't any risk and only the size of the profit could be different.
Middles without risk /example 2/
ST Etienne - FC Milsami
1) AH2 (+0.75) at 6.00 - Bet365 ("FC Milsami" to Win or Draw. If "FC Milsami" lose with one goal - half bet will be void)
2) 1 at 1.23 - Tempobet ("ST Etienne" to Win)
- 1.1) If "FC Milsami" Win or is Draw you will win 100x6.00 - (100+487.80) = 600.00 - 587.80 = 12.20
- 2.1) If "ST Etienne" Win with exactly one goal you will win 487.80x1.23 - (50+487.80) = 599.99 - 537.80 = 62.19 (It is 50 because you will get back half of your bet at AH2 +0.75)
- 3.0) If "ST Etienne" Win with two or more goals you will win 487.80x1.23 - (100+487.80) = 599.99 - 587.80 = 12.19 (This time half bet won't be void because "FC Milsami" lose with two or more goals)
So here is one very interesting situation. the only thing you are risking is how much money you will win! There is no way to lose any. In one of the cases you will win 12.20 and in the other case, you will win 62.19.
Over/Under Middles /example 3/
Rapid - Mattersburg
1) Under (4.75) at 1.21 - Bet365 (Goals to be 0,1,2,3 or 4. If total goals are 5 - half bet will be returned)
2) Over (4.5) at 4.40 - Tempobet (Total goals to be 6 or more)
- 1.1) If there are four goals or less you will win 100x1.21 - (100+27.49) = 121.00 - 127.49 = -6.49
- 2.1) If there are 5 goals you will win 27.49x4.4 - (50+27.49) = 120.96 - 77.49 = 43.47 (It is 50 because you will get back half of your bet on Under 4.75 because there are exactly 5 total goals)
- 3.0) If there are 6 goals or more you will win 27.49x4.4 - (100+27.49) = 120.96 - 127.49 = -6.53 (This time half bet won't be void because the total goals are not 5, but more)
Math behind calculating the value of Middles:
Example 1 - (43.65/6.31)+1 = 7.92
Example 3 - (43.47/6.49)+1 = 7.70
The screenshots with middles calculator are taken from the fastest sure bets delivery software - OddStorm.